Frontier lab valuations tracker: OpenAI and Anthropic marks, asks and IPO talk, dated

This tracker logs the dated valuation marks for the two largest frontier labs, OpenAI and Anthropic, and separates what has closed from what is only reported. As of October 20, 2026, the closed marks are OpenAI at $852 billion (March 31) and Anthropic at $965 billion (May). The open items are OpenAI's reported ask above $1.4 trillion and the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range being discussed for Anthropic's IPO. We update this page as each changes, and we log every correction.

How to read this page

Each row has a date, a figure, a source and a status. Closed means the company or a filing confirms it. Reported means a news outlet citing people familiar. Discussed means investors or analysts talking about a number, which is not a price anyone has paid. Reuters, Bloomberg and the labs' own announcements are the sources we weigh most. We do not predict prices and this is not investment advice.

Closed marks

OpenAI, March 31, 2026: $122 billion at $852 billion post-money. OpenAI said it closed a record round. Per Bloomberg Law's April 1 report, Amazon committed $50 billion and Nvidia and SoftBank $30 billion each. About $35 billion of Amazon's commitment depends on OpenAI going public or reaching a technological milestone, which means not all of the headline $122 billion is unconditional. Funds are for compute, including chips and data centers, and for hiring.

Anthropic, May 2026: $65 billion at $965 billion post-money. This figure comes from Implicator.ai's October 15 report on the company's investor meeting. We did not find a primary announcement for it in our sources this run, so we treat it as reported and will upgrade it when we can cite the company.

Taken together, the sources say Anthropic's last private mark is higher than OpenAI's last closed one, by about $113 billion, though the two were set weeks apart and OpenAI has since reported a higher ask.

Reported and discussed figures

OpenAI, October 20, 2026: about $30 billion at above $1.4 trillion (reported). Reuters, citing people familiar, per Tech Funding News. OpenAI and SoftBank declined to comment. SoftBank and Abu Dhabi's MGX are reportedly in talks, and no lead investor is settled. The price is presented as a fixed pre-money figure. It would be about 64% above the March mark, which is our arithmetic from $1.4 trillion against $852 billion. Our Anthropic IPO tracker covers the listing side of the race.

Anthropic IPO, October 15, 2026: $1.5 trillion to more than $2 trillion (discussed). Reuters says investors discussed more than $2 trillion. Implicator.ai says some see fair value at $1.8 to $2 trillion. A summary of a second Reuters report says about $1.5 trillion. Timing is after the November 3 midterms, with marketing possibly starting the week of November 9, per Implicator.ai.

The business behind the marks

Revenue is the denominator every investor will use, so here is what is reported, with the caveat that none of it is audited.

• Anthropic: Q1 2026 revenue $4.7 billion, Q2 $11.6 billion, Q3 $16.8 billion, per Reuters on October 15. Annualized revenue about $74 billion per SemiAnalysis, as cited by Implicator.ai.
• OpenAI: annualized revenue about $50 billion per Tech Funding News, citing its reporting.

Implied multiples, by our arithmetic, are only rough. OpenAI's ask is about 28 times annualized revenue on Tech Funding News's figure. Anthropic's $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range would be roughly 20 to 27 times the $74 billion SemiAnalysis estimate. The two revenue measures are not defined the same way, as we explain in our run-rate accounting piece, so do not rank the labs on these ratios.

Why the marks matter beyond the headline

A valuation is a claim on the future, and the race to superintelligence is partly a race for capital. Compute commitments are fixed in advance, so a lab that cannot raise at a rising price has to cut or borrow. Anthropic's investor presentation, as reported, said it has committed hundreds of billions of dollars to future cloud, computing and infrastructure under long-term agreements. A high mark makes those commitments easier to carry and a lower one makes them heavier. That is why this page tracks both the number and its status: a negotiated figure that never closes still shapes how the other side prices risk.

Market backdrop

Valuation marks are set against a market that has wobbled. Reuters' October 19 Trading Day column says the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.5%, ending an eight-day losing streak that was the longest since October 2008, and still had to recover an 11.5% slump. Tech Funding News reports Reuters sources saying the index lost more than $1.6 trillion in under two weeks and that several data-center-related listings were paused. Private marks do not move daily, which is why an IPO matters: it replaces a negotiated price with a traded one.

What would change this page

• A confirmation or filing on OpenAI's reported raise, or a named lead investor.
• A public prospectus from Anthropic, which would give audited revenue and the definition of adjusted profit.
• A reported down-round, a delayed IPO or a change to the Amazon conditions.
• A third lab, such as xAI or Safe Superintelligence, with a documented mark we can verify. Our Safe Superintelligence tracker holds that company's history.

Our take

The cleanest rule on this page is to separate a price from a conversation. Only two numbers here are prices that someone actually paid, and one of them, Anthropic's, we could cite only through a reporting outlet. Everything above $1 trillion for OpenAI and everything above $1.5 trillion for Anthropic is a negotiating position until a close or a first trade. When one of those positions becomes a price, this page will say so, with the date and the source.