US-China AI chip export controls calendar: the Affiliates Rule, the Huang briefing and every date to watch

This page is a calendar, not an argument. It lists the dated US decisions that govern whether advanced AI chips and the companies around them can reach China, and what each rests on. We update it when a date passes or a new one appears. The last update was November 9, 2026, the day the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) published its latest extension.

How to use this calendar

Three kinds of event matter. Rules are binding documents with effective dates. Requests, such as letters from committees, set a timetable but compel nothing. Reports are press accounts that move politics but prove nothing by themselves. We label each row with its kind and its source, and we say plainly when we read a summary instead of the original.

The Affiliates Rule timeline

• September 29 to 30, 2025 (rule). BIS issues an interim final rule extending Entity List and Military End User List restrictions to foreign entities at least 50% owned, directly or indirectly, by listed parties. Federal Register citation 90 FR 47201. Source: Federal Register final rule 2026-22793 and Pillsbury's October 22, 2026 alert.
• November 1, 2025 (announcement). The White House announces a one-year suspension after the October 30, 2025 Trump and Xi meeting in Busan. Source: Pillsbury.
• November 10, 2025 (rule). BIS stays the rule through November 9, 2026 at 90 FR 50857. Pillsbury dates the BIS publication November 12; the Federal Register says the stay was effective November 10.
• September 23, 2026 (statement). Pillsbury reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a two-month extension of the Busan Agreement, through January 10, 2027. The alert paraphrases and gives no direct quote.
• November 9, 2026 (rule). BIS publishes final rule 2026-22793 (91 FR 70789) under docket 261027-0002, effective that day. The rule is "further stayed until January 10, 2027." Without it, the rule would have returned on November 10.
• January 10, 2027 (deadline). The stay ends unless BIS acts again. Pillsbury's authors write that "even if extended, the suspension offers limited certainty."

The congressional and executive track

• January 2026 (report). ABC News reports that Jensen Huang persuaded President Trump to allow advanced chip sales to China, with the US government receiving 25% of profits. We have not opened the deal's terms ourselves.
• September 2026 (report). ABC reports Huang attended a White House state dinner for Chinese President Xi Jinping and an AI and tech luncheon the same month.
• October 29, 2026 (report). The New York Times reports that US officials suspect a Megaspeed executive, Alice Huang, of passing information to Chinese officials. Trump was briefed and took no action, per ABC. The allegation is unproven, and Nvidia and China deny it.
• November 5, 2026 (request). House Foreign Affairs chair Brian Mast, China Select Committee chair John Moolenaar and Intelligence chair Rick Crawford ask Huang for a closed-door briefing.
• November 11, 2026 (deadline). Huang's reply date to accept November 18 or propose another date.
• November 18, 2026 (requested briefing). A joint, closed-door briefing, if Huang agrees. The letter mentions no subpoena or penalty.

What each date could change

The Affiliates Rule is about ownership. It decides whether an overseas buyer owned half or more by a listed party needs a license. If the stay lapses on January 10, 2027, exporters that served such affiliates freely would have to screen them or stop. That is a bigger change in the supply chain than a single company's briefing.

The congressional track is about oversight and optics. Nothing in the committees' letter changes any license. It could, though, shape the political cost of the next deal, and it is the place any new evidence would surface first. Our same-day news reports on the briefing request and on the stay extension go into each in detail. A reader tracking the physical race should treat the ownership rule as the larger structural lever and the briefing as the faster-moving political one.

Related enforcement and market data

These items are not on the calendar but give it context. Our chip smuggling cases tracker follows prosecutions of people who evade existing licenses. The IDC data on Nvidia's China share shows the market effect of the controls, and the Epoch chip imports explorer piece gives import shares. We have not re-verified those figures for this page.

What we cannot see

The Federal Register text we could read for the November 9 rule was limited to its metadata and abstract, so we have no rationale from BIS. The committees' letter is described in their press release; we read the release, not the letter. And two weeks of press summaries about Nvidia's contacts rest on unnamed officials. When a primary document appears for any of these, the relevant row here will be rewritten and dated.

How we update this page

We re-send this page through the correction loop whenever a date passes or a new rule, letter or filing appears, and we note the change at the top. We do not add rows from rumor. A date goes on the calendar when a document or an on-the-record statement supports it.

Our take

The calendar has two kinds of date, those that bind and those that signal. The hard ones are the Federal Register effective dates. Everything else, the briefing included, is a signal about how the next binding decision may go. Watch January 10, 2027 more closely than November 18.